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Trulieve Cannabis Corp. (TCNNF)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered stable topline and stronger margins: revenue $298M flat YoY (+$0.2M) with gross margin at 62% vs 58% last year and GAAP gross profit $183M .
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $109M (37% of revenue), up 3% YoY, and adjusted EPS was $(0.02) vs $(0.05) last year, reflecting non-GAAP addbacks (campaign support, impairments, other non-recurring) .
  • Results beat S&P Global consensus on revenue and EPS: revenue $297.8M actual vs $294.1M est (+$3.7M)* and EPS $(0.02) actual vs $(0.09) est (+$0.07); EBITDA came in below consensus on a non-GAAP basis (EBITDA $76.0M actual vs $96.7M est) while adjusted EBITDA was stronger at $109M .
  • FY25 outlook maintained: operating cash flow “at least $250M” and capex “up to $40M”; Q2 revenue expected to be flat to up low-single digits, with $329M cash and ~$480M debt at 7.9% interest providing liquidity .
  • Catalysts: continued margin discipline, store expansion and brand initiatives (Onward beverages), and resolution progress on 280E tax challenge (uncertain tax position $501M; “without 280E, Q1 net income would have been positive”) .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Gross margin expanded to 62% (vs 58% YoY), driving GAAP gross profit to $183M; adjusted EBITDA margin held at 37% despite flat revenue .
  • Strong cash generation: $51M cash from operations and $34M free cash flow in Q1, supporting liquidity ($329M quarter-end cash) .
  • Management emphasized operational excellence and customer loyalty: “Strong margins and cash flow achieved in the first quarter clearly demonstrate our commitment to operational excellence” — Kim Rivers, CEO .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP net loss widened YoY to $(33)M (vs $(23)M), driven by operating expense growth and tax accruals; EPS (cont. ops) remained at $(0.16) .
  • EBITDA (non-GAAP) of $76.0M was below S&P Global consensus of ~$96.7M*, although adjusted EBITDA of $109.2M was robust; highlights sensitivity to addback definitions versus street methodology .
  • Uncertain tax position increased to $501M (with $467M tied to the 280E challenge), continuing to cloud GAAP profitability until resolution; management noted net income would have been positive without 280E .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Financial Results

Core P&L vs prior periods and estimates

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025 ActualQ1 2025 Consensus Est.
Revenue ($USD Millions)$297.6 $301.1 $297.8 $294.1*
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$173.8 $187.0 $183.2 —
Gross Margin (%)58% 62% 62% —
EPS - Continuing Ops ($)$(0.16) $(0.26) $(0.16) $(0.09)*
Adjusted EPS ($)$(0.05) $0.02 $(0.02) —

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

EBITDA and Margin

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025 ActualQ1 2025 Consensus Est.
EBITDA (Non-GAAP) ($USD Millions)$85.0 $41.3 $76.0 $96.7*
EBITDA Margin (%)29% 14% 26% —
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$105.8 $111.4 $109.2 —
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)36% 37% 37% —

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment/Channel and Retail KPIs

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Retail Revenue ($USD Millions)$269 $285 $282
Retail Share of Revenue (%)95% 95% 95%
Branded Products Sold (Millions)11.5 12.5 12.0
Traffic YoY / Seq (%)+10% / +1% +13% / +4% +7% / −1%
Loyalty Members (000s)——625
Loyalty Transactions Share (%)——68%
% Stores Outside Florida30% 29% 30%
% Stores Medical-Only87% 88% 86%
Dispensary Count (period-end)220 229 229

Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Highlights

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)$139.2 $30.7 $50.7
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions, Non-GAAP)$123.7 $(11.8) $33.9
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$326.9 $238.8 $328.5
Total Debt ($USD Millions, notes + private placement)—~$476.7 ~$476.4
Uncertain Tax Position Liability ($USD Millions)—$445.2 $500.9

Note: Total debt shown from balance sheet includes private placement notes and notes payable .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueQ2 2025—Flat to up low single digits vs Q1 2025 New
RevenueQ1 2025Down low single digits vs Q4 2024 —Completed (inline: Q1 down 1% seq)
Operating Cash FlowFY 2025≥ $250M ≥ $250M Maintained
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025Up to $40M Up to $40M Maintained
Financial Position (cash/debt)As of period-end$300M cash & ST investments; ~$480M debt @7.9% (Dec 31, 2024) $329M cash; ~$480M debt @7.9% (Mar 31, 2025) Improved liquidity

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Tax/280E & refundsUncertain tax position $384M; $115M refunds; “without 280E, YTD net income positive” Uncertain tax position $445M; $114M refunds; “without 280E, 2024 net income positive” Uncertain tax position $501M (of which $467M tied to challenge); “without 280E, Q1 net income would have been positive” Heightened focus; liability increased
Margin disciplineGM 61%; adj. EBITDA margin 34% GM 62%; adj. EBITDA margin 37% GM 62%; adj. EBITDA margin 37% Sustained strength
Branded products & loyalty11.5M units; retention 65% 12.5M units; retention 68% 12.0M units; 68% of transactions from loyalty; 625k members Loyalty deepening
Distribution expansion220 stores; OH adult-use launched 229 stores; added stores in FL/GA; footprint 29% ex-FL 229 stores; one new FL store in St. Petersburg Steady build-out
Product innovation (Onward beverage)Rolled #YesOn3 campaign products Launched Onward THC beverages Onward available in FL retail and shipped to 36 states Expanding
Regulatory/reformFL vote focus; positioning for rec. launch if approved SAFE/rescheduling commentary in objectives Reform focus explicit (Rescheduling, SAFE, States 2.0) Consistent advocacy

Management Commentary

  • “Strong margins and cash flow achieved in the first quarter clearly demonstrate our commitment to operational excellence. With our loyal customer base, branded products, and efforts to drive cannabis reform, Trulieve stands out as an industry leader.” — Kim Rivers, CEO .
  • “Uncertain tax position liability was $501 million at March 31, 2025… Without the effect of 280E, Q1 2025 net income would have been positive.” — Investor Presentation (Tax Position) .
  • Focus areas for 2025 include customer experience, distribution expansion, branded product development (Modern Flower, Roll One, Sweet Talk), and federal reform (Rescheduling, SAFE Banking, States 2.0) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Management reaffirmed full-year operating cash flow guidance of at least $250M and discussed store expansion plans for 2025, with emphasis on branded product growth and loyalty initiatives .
  • Prepared remarks and discussion reiterated strong gross margin performance and cash generation, as well as continued progress and strategy around the 280E tax challenge and reform priorities .
  • Clarified near-term revenue outlook: Q2 expected flat to up low-single digits, aligning tactical execution with footprint and branded portfolio momentum .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue and EPS exceeded consensus: $297.8M actual vs $294.1M est (+$3.7M); EPS $(0.02) vs $(0.09) est (+$0.07)*, helped by stable topline and stronger gross margin .
  • EBITDA under consensus on a non-GAAP basis ($76.0M actual vs $96.7M est)*, while adjusted EBITDA was $109.2M, reflecting addbacks for non-recurring items (campaign contributions, impairments, transaction costs); investors should note methodological differences between “EBITDA” and “Adjusted EBITDA” when benchmarking vs sell-side .
  • With Q2 revenue guided to flat to up low-single digits and sustained gross margin discipline, some models may lift EPS/FCF assumptions; however, 280E accruals and uncertain tax position will continue to anchor GAAP profitability sensitivity near term .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Margin durability is the story: 62% gross margin and 37% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q1 underscore operational excellence and cost discipline .
  • Cash generation intact: $51M CFO and $33.9M FCF provide flexibility for footprint investments and brand initiatives (including Onward beverages) .
  • Street comparison requires care: EBITDA miss vs consensus contrasts with strong adjusted EBITDA; understand addbacks and reconcile non-GAAP to GAAP when modeling .
  • Near-term topline set-up: Q2 revenue guide (flat to up LSD) plus loyalty/traffic metrics suggests stable demand with potential incremental upside from retail execution .
  • Tax overhang persists: uncertain tax position rose to $501M; management continues to challenge 280E and notes profitability would be positive absent 280E — a key medium-term rerating lever .
  • Regulatory optionality: continued advocacy for rescheduling/SAFE and ongoing adult-use dynamics (OH launched; FL positioning) present catalysts if policy moves favorably .
  • Positioning: $329M cash and ~7.9% debt cost provide liquidity to pursue targeted expansion, remodels, and wholesale partnerships .

Additional Primary Source Documents Reviewed

  • Q1 2025 8-K press release and financials (full document), plus investor presentation exhibits .
  • Prior quarters for trend analysis: Q4 2024 8-K press release and investor presentation ; Q3 2024 8-K press release and investor materials .
  • Relevant Q1 2025 press releases: earnings release and call scheduling .